UFC 331 Predictions: Picking Every Fight on the Van vs. Pantoja 2 Card
Joshua Van choked out a legend in the fourth round back in March, and now he has to do it again against a version of Alexandre Pantoja who spent six months studying exactly how it happened. UFC 331 lands at Crypto.com Arena on September 19, and it’s the rare pay-per-view where every fight on the main card actually matters to a division.
I’ve watched tape on all six main card bouts, and I’m not hedging on this one. Here’s every pick, ranked by how confident I am, plus the two prelim fights worth staying up for.
Joshua Van vs. Alexandre Pantoja 2 Prediction
Van wins by decision again. Pantoja fixed the wrestling exchanges that got him finished the first time, but he still can’t solve a champion who’s four inches taller and comfortable fighting off his back foot for 25 minutes. Pantoja gets moments. Van gets the scorecards.
The first fight told you everything about the stylistic problem here. Pantoja is the best positional grappler at 125 pounds not named Van, but Van’s length turns every clinch entry into a track meet. When Pantoja finally got the fight to the mat in round three of the original bout, Van scrambled back to his feet inside four seconds. That’s not an accident — that’s a champion who trains scrambles like other guys train jabs. Expect Pantoja to change levels early and often. Expect Van to make him pay for it on the feet by round four.
Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy Breakdown
Tsarukyan by decision, and it won’t be as close as the betting line suggests. Ruffy’s flash and range are real, but he’s never faced a wrestler who chains takedowns off failed strikes the way Tsarukyan does. Volume wins this fight, not highlight-reel power.
I already broke down the specific striking-range problem Ruffy creates in my full Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy matchup analysis, and nothing about fight week has changed my read. Ruffy needs distance to land his spinning attacks and southpaw counters. Tsarukyan’s entire game plan is designed to remove distance from the equation in the first ten seconds of every round. If Ruffy can’t stuff at least half of the takedown attempts he’s about to see, this turns into a wrestling clinic by the third round.
Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega 2 Rematch Stakes
Moicano wins the rematch, but this time it’s a finish. Ortega’s chin has taken damage in three of his last four fights, and Moicano now knows he doesn’t need to force the guillotine — his boxing alone can get the job done if he stays patient through the first two rounds.
Their first meeting was a split-decision classic that could’ve gone either way, decided by Moicano’s late takedown and grinding top control. This time, Moicano has a full camp built around what worked: measured boxing behind a stiff jab, feints to draw Ortega’s counters, and a willingness to abandon the guillotine hunt when it isn’t there. Ortega still owns the better ground game on paper, but paper doesn’t account for a chin that’s been tested one fight too many times.
Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf Heavyweight Test
Steveson wins inside two rounds. An Olympic gold medalist with his gas tank and explosiveness shouldn’t lose to anyone still building a UFC resume, and Sharaf hasn’t shown the takedown defense to survive a wrestler this dominant in tight spaces.
The bigger question isn’t whether Steveson wins Saturday — it’s whether he looks finished doing it, or whether he still gapes for air once the wrestling exchanges slow down. His last two outings ended before the clinch could expose his cardio, which is either a sign he’s fixed the problem or a sign nobody’s tested it yet. Sharaf, credit to him, actually likes to scramble rather than turtle up, so we might finally get an honest answer.
Undercard Fights Worth Staying Up For
Patricio Pitbull vs. Doo Ho Choi is the sneaky fight-of-the-night candidate on this card — two featherweights who’ve never gone to a decision they didn’t have to. On the prelims, Marlon Vera against Charles Jourdain is a pure violence bet between two guys who’d rather trade than clinch.
Pitbull is 39 and still hits like he’s 29, which makes every Doo Ho Choi counter a real risk instead of a formality. I’m picking Pitbull by knockout, but I wouldn’t blame anyone who takes the under on fight time. Vera-Jourdain is harder to call — I lean Vera on volume, but I’m not betting money on it, just my Saturday night attention.
Full UFC 331 Card Predictions and Picks
- Joshua Van def. Alexandre Pantoja — unanimous decision
- Arman Tsarukyan def. Mauricio Ruffy — unanimous decision
- Renato Moicano def. Brian Ortega — TKO, round 3
- Gable Steveson def. Sean Sharaf — TKO, round 2
- Patricio Pitbull def. Doo Ho Choi — KO, round 2
- Iwo Baraniewski def. Alonzo Menifield — split decision
The Baraniewski-Menifield pick is my one real leap of faith on this card. Menifield’s power is legitimate at light heavyweight, but Baraniewski’s output and cardio have been enough to survive scarier punchers than this. It’s the fight I’m least sure about and the one I’d watch closest for an upset.
What UFC 331 Teaches About Matchmaking Strategy
Van-Pantoja 2 is a rare case where the sequel fight is booked purely on merit — no rankings shortcut, no title-shot politics, just the best available style clash at 125 pounds getting run back. That’s the exact logic worth applying if you’re running your own roster in TKO Tycoon.
In the game, it’s tempting to always book your best fighter against the next available name on the rankings list. This card argues for something different: sometimes the better business decision is a rematch against a style that already sold once, especially when the first fight left a real question unanswered. Pantoja lost clean the first time, but the manner of the loss — a late scramble finish rather than a one-sided beating — is exactly the kind of storyline that drives a rematch gate. Build your own promotion around style clashes like this one, not just ranking order, and your book will draw better numbers.
Frequently Asked Questions About UFC 331
When is UFC 331 and where is it held?
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 takes place Saturday, September 19, 2026, at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. Early prelims start at 5 p.m. ET, prelims at 7 p.m. ET, and the main card at 9 p.m. ET.
Who is fighting in the main event of UFC 331?
Flyweight champion Joshua Van defends his title against Alexandre Pantoja in an immediate rematch of their first title fight, which Van won by fourth-round submission.
Where can I watch UFC 331?
UFC 331 streams live in the United States exclusively on Paramount+, with the main card available on pay-per-view tiers of the service.
Is Gable Steveson fighting at UFC 331?
Yes. Olympic gold medalist Gable Steveson faces Sean Sharaf in a heavyweight bout on the main card, one of the most closely watched wrestling-to-MMA transitions in the sport right now.
References
- UFC.com – Official fight-by-fight preview and card details for UFC 331
- ESPN MMA – UFC 331 fight center coverage and live results
- Bloody Elbow – Fight week reporting on the Tsarukyan camp and gameplan
